Analysis of the EA Zone USDCHF robot.
Table of Contents
Introduction.
For this analysis I will take the 2 tutorials, I made for this purpose. There will also be additional criteria that I did not put on the tutorials, because they are not important.
Analysis Criterion and Strategy test analysis.
I know for my trading system certain point, in particular that there is no grid nor martingale, etc. …. but I will show you all this, I will analyse my robot as if it were not the mine and that I wish to make a constructive criticism of it which is not intended to influence you to buy it or not.
I would like to emphasise that it is your responsibility to purchase the product, you will have 7 days to withdraw and be reimbursed. Gains and losses are not the author’s responsibility, all the criteria to avoid a bad decision are present, it’s up to you to be careful.
As explained in my tutorial, I will start by preparing my backtest on the Metatrader 5 software by downloading the demo.
To do my tests, I will use these parameters and I will do 3 tests over periods that seem to come back often. The trading systems will be tested over the entire market period, from 2010 to today and from 2015 to today. These time units come back regularly and I think it is good to compare certain criteria over several periods to avoid that the trading system is optimised for one period.
Test results
A colour code for the following will make it possible to differentiate these 3 periods.
You can find the 3 graphs and their 3 backtest reports below.
Opening the image in a new tab will allow you to zoom in on the image and see all the analyses that will follow.
Entire history
Colour code : #000000
2010.01.01 to 2022.10.05
Colour code : #0514FB
2015.01.01 to 2022.10.05
Colour code : #8000F9
Analysis criterion
During the test the curves do not present a martingale or grid type strategy. However a trading account is required for hedging.
We note that each open position has an SL and a TP systematically and that the ratio between the SL and TP is greater than 1, which means that each strategy aims to earn more than what is risky.
We can see in the inputs parameters allowing managing the size of the positions to risk a percentage of the capital and no more.
Strategy test analysis
I’m going to use the strategy analysis tutorial to analyse where the strategy fits in the outcome criteria.
Average Win / Loss
You just need to have a ratio between the average win divide the average losers.
This reflects the risk of each position, in general one wishes to gain more than one has risk.
3.38 = 41 496$ / 12 261$
3.09 = 34 779$ / 11 247$
3.03 = 787$ / 259$
Conclusion Average
For all the periods, the ratio remained above 3 and the difference between the periods shows stability in the ratio.
Profit Factor
Profit Factor = 1.80
A ratio between 1.25 and 1.75 represents a mark of minimum security, but will not be able to support the various expenses over the years and transactions (brokers’ commission, platform fees, taxes, bank commission, data expenses Steps…)
Profit Factor = 2.22
A profit factor of 2 is the minimum to have if you want to survive in the financial markets.2
Profit Factor = 2.22
A profit factor of 2 is the minimum to have if you want to survive in the financial markets.
Conclusion Profit Factor
For the entire history, the profit factor is low and is in the improved category, after that it is to compensate for the commissions and the swap, except that the objective is not played at the few cents asked for lots of 0.01 see which means that the system can survive despite a profit factor lower than 2. Otherwise for the other periods the profit factor is good.
Recovery Factor
Recovery factor = 3.84 the system has a certain profit margin and you might consider this system for trading.
Recovery Factor = 7.77 the system has a certain profit margin and you might consider this system for trading.
Recovery Factor = 7.70 the system has a certain profit margin and you might consider this system for trading.
Conclusion Recovery Factor
No period exceeds 10, on the other hand, all the periods are consistent with the stability of the system.
Sharpe Ratio
Sharpe Ratio = 1.05 this can mean that the risk pays off and that the portfolio/strategy can show results. Good.
Sharpe Ratio = 1.67 this can mean that the risk pays off and that the portfolio/strategy can show results. Good.
Sharpe Ratio = 1.42 this can mean that the risk pays off and that the portfolio/strategy can show results. Good.
Conclusion Sharpe Ratio
For all periods the sharpe ratio shows good risk management.
Conclusion
It is a system of strategy which respects the analyses of criterion, which makes basically the strategy not dangerous. We can also observe that there is no over-optimisation, because there is not one period of time that is unloaded from the others.
Overall the analysis figures are good, although the profit factor is a little weak the system could take more opportunities to improve the profit factor and the recovery factor. The difficulty will be not to impact risk management by eliminating filters to take more positions.
The recovery factor is balanced, but could be improved.
Come and discuss the strategy on the community discord.