Analysis of Wolf Scalper.
Table of Contents
Introduction.
For this analysis I will take the 2 tutorials, I made for this purpose. There will also be additional criteria that I did not put on the tutorials, because they are not important.
Analysis Criterion and Strategy test analysis.
As I write these lines, Wolf Scalper occupies the number 1 spot in the mql5 market on the Expert Advisors.
You can find 3 signals there, a demo account, an account with Metatrader 5 and another with Metatrader 4.
Some will ask, why a difference between Metatrader 5 and Metatrader 4? Do we not have the same results?
Simply that at the same broker it is possible that there are slippages, different spreads between MT4 and MT5. What you have to understand is that Wolf Scalper is very sensitive to these 2 parameters. This explains why these 3 signals are different, because the demo account will also have other parameters.
What you need to know is that you have to use a good broker with a good VPS to get the right results. It is better to ask the author Dmitry Kondrashov for assistance.
Test results
A colour code for the following will make it possible to differentiate these 3 periods.
You can find the 3 graphs and their 3 backtest reports below.
Opening the image in a new tab will allow you to zoom in on the image and see all the analyses that will follow.
Entire history
Colour code : #000000
2010.01.01 to 2022.10.27
Colour code : #0514FB
2015.01.01 to 2022.10.27
Colour code : #8000F9
Analysis criterion
During the test the curves do not present a martingale or grid type strategy.
We note that each open position has an SL and a TP systematically and that the ratio between the SL and TP is 1. Despite this, the real Risk/Reward (RR) is well below 1 because the trailing stop quickly closes the positions..
We can see in the inputs parameters allowing managing the size of the positions to risk a percentage of the capital and no more.
Strategy test analysis
I’m going to use the strategy analysis tutorial to analyse where the strategy fits in the outcome criteria.
Average Win / Loss
You just need to have a ratio between the average win divide the average losers.
This reflects the risk of each position, in general one wishes to gain more than one has risk.
0.44 = 2 685$ / 6 080$
0.43 = 2 744$ / 6 324$
0.57 = 532$ / 925$
Conclusion Average
We see beautiful is that the ratios are all less than 1 despite SL and TP placed at equal distance. Trailing Stop quickly closes positions.
This means that each position risks much more than can be gained. You have to keep a big Winrate to keep making profits.
Profit Factor
Profit Factor = 3.50
A profit factor of 2 is the minimum to have if you want to survive in the financial markets.
Profit Factor = 3.49
A profit factor of 2 is the minimum to have if you want to survive in the financial markets.
Profit Factor = 4.54
the ratio is greater than 4, this is too ambitious in real life.
Conclusion Profit Factor
The profits factor shows that the win rate must be high to keep a profit, it is close to being too ambitious to be used for real.
Recovery Factor
Recovery factor = 32.09 is more than 10, you can consider this system stable and use it with a bigger capital.
Recovery Factor = 29.79 is more than 10, you can consider this system stable and use it with a bigger capital.
Recovery Factor = 36.50 is more than 10, you can consider this system stable and use it with a bigger capital.
Conclusion Recovery Factor
All the recovery factors are greater than 10, which means that a loss is quickly recovered with the gains.
Sharpe Ratio
Sharpe Ratio = 25.60 a high value indicates that the probability of obtaining a loss in each particular deal is very low. Very good.
Sharpe Ratio = 25.84 a high value indicates that the probability of obtaining a loss in each particular deal is very low. Very good.
Sharpe Ratio = 27.90 a high value indicates that the probability of obtaining a loss in each particular deal is very low. Very good.
Conclusion Sharpe Ratio
The Sharpe Ratio is excellent in each of the periods.
Conclusion
I remember that the RR is less than 1, which forces the robot to have a large earnings ratio to remain in profit.
The robot is sensitive with brokers and VPS, it is advisable to request this information from the author.
Each other analysis is very encouraging for the future.