Analysis of the HAlgo RTM.
Table of Contents
Introduction.
For this analysis I will take the 2 tutorials, I made for this purpose. There will also be additional criteria that I did not put on the tutorials, because they are not important.
Analysis Criterion and Strategy test analysis.
I would like to emphasise that it is your responsibility to purchase the product, you will have 7 days to withdraw and be reimbursed. Gains and losses are not the author’s responsibility, all the criteria to avoid a bad decision are present, it’s up to you to be careful.
As explained in my tutorial, I will start by preparing my backtest on the Metatrader 5 software by downloading the demo.
To do my tests, I will use these parameters and I will do 3 tests over periods that seem to come back often. The trading systems will be tested over the entire market period, from 2010 to today and from 2015 to today. These time units come back regularly and I think it is good to compare certain criteria over several periods to avoid that the trading system is optimised for one period.
Test results
A colour code for the following will make it possible to differentiate these 3 periods.
You can find the 3 graphs and their 3 backtest reports below.
Opening the image in a new tab will allow you to zoom in on the image and see all the analyses that will follow.
Entire history
Colour code : #000000
2010.01.01 to 2023.01.06
Colour code : #0514FB
2015.01.01 to 2023.01.06
Colour code : #8000F9
Analysis criterion
During the test the curves do not present a martingale or grid type strategy. However a trading account is required for hedging.
The profile of the curve made thought has an overoptimized curve, but I found that this overoptimization would be from 2007! before 2007 the EA really doesn’t have the same behavior, which doesn’t mean that it’s bad or anything, before 2007 the EA just doesn’t have the same reaction.
The red part, from 2005 to 2007 I don’t know why, but no trade. Then after that it’s a flight, there’s no stopping it. It really looks like a manipulation or overoptimization.
We can see in the inputs parameters allowing managing the size of the positions to risk a percentage of the capital and no more.
Strategy test analysis
I’m going to use the strategy analysis tutorial to analyse where the strategy fits in the outcome criteria.
Average Win / Loss
You just need to have a ratio between the average win divide the average losers.
This reflects the risk of each position, in general one wishes to gain more than one has risk.
2.19 = 14 177$ / 6 458$
1.28 = 20 991$ / 16 324$
1.40 = 28 302$ / 20 131$
Conclusion Average
For all the periods, the ratio remained above 1 and the difference between the periods shows stability in the ratio.
Profit Factor
Profit Factor = 4.07
is greater than 4, this is too ambitious in real life.
Profit Factor = 3.41
A profit factor of 2 is the minimum to have if you want to survive in the financial markets.
Profit Factor = 3.56
A profit factor of 2 is the minimum to have if you want to survive in the financial markets.
Conclusion Profit Factor
The profit factor is high for the whole period, otherwise the other 2 periods the profit factor is good. However noted that the author publish an image with a profit factor of 5.48, which is far too ambitious …
Recovery Factor
Recovery factor = 22.08 is better to update it, since its stability is questionable.
Recovery Factor = 22.39 is better to update it, since its stability is questionable.
Recovery Factor = 26.50 is better to update it, since its stability is questionable.
Conclusion Recovery Factor
The Recovery Factor is excellent.
Sharpe Ratio
Sharpe Ratio = 5.67 a high value indicates that the probability of obtaining a loss in each particular deal is very low. Very good.
Sharpe Ratio = 9.34 a high value indicates that the probability of obtaining a loss in each particular deal is very low. Very good.
Sharpe Ratio = 11.56 a high value indicates that the probability of obtaining a loss in each particular deal is very low. Very good.
Conclusion Sharpe Ratio
For all periods the sharpe ratio shows is very good risk management.
Conclusion
It is a system of strategy which respects the analyses of criterion, which makes basically the strategy not dangerous.
The EA seems ambitious, but it passes my criteria if there is no optimization or abusive manipulation.
Only the author uses price marketing. He promises to increase the price after x sales only I have observed for a long time that he does not move the price, as if the compulsive buyers buy and the author wants it, because he thinks that the EA will not last.
For me it is promising, but too big suspicion of overoptimization, it is good to observe with the live signal if the EA does like the tests.
Come and discuss the strategy on the community discord.